From the State of Alaska Department of Revenue. This is weekly oil production from the north slope, as measured at Pump Station 1 (the beginning of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline). The black line is the FY 2009 predicted production for state budget purposes. The green line is a statistical lie (aka bullshit), but it’s how the Department of Revenue reconciles their projection with reality to the state legislature. Many of the state legislators can’t do math, so they accept the green line because it’s pretty and green. The red line is reality. Note that, so far, production has not kept up with projections (off by 17,000 barrels/day). Production has generally been declining, and will continue to decline. FYI, the two deep spikes are due to scheduled maintenance and should be viewed as outliers to the general trend.
Here’s what’s saving the day. The Department of Revenue underestimated the price of oil (the black line). Again, the green line is a statistical lie, and the red line is reality. So even though they overestimated production by 17,000 barrels/day, they also underestimated price by $10.26/barrel, which means that overall projected revenue is close to projections.
UPDATE: New numbers (17 September 2008) are here.